Bodog oddsmaker also likes Lady Gaga's chances at Sunday's big show.
By James Montgomery
Photo: Getty Images/ MTV News/ Jessica Hyndman
Earlier this week, we tried our hand at picking the winners for the 2011 MTV Video Music Awards, but with the big show just around the corner -- airing live from Los Angeles this Sunday at 9 p.m. — we figured it was time to let the pros have their say.
We reached out to the folks at the Bodog Sportsbook to get their take on Sunday's show ... and, as it turns out, much like us, they see it being a big night for Katy Perry. But it definitely won't be a clean sweep for the California Gurl; they also like Justin Bieber's and Lady Gaga's chances too.
So here, for your wagering pleasure, are Bodog's odds for the 2011 VMAs. Remember, it's only considered a "gambling problem" if you lose.
Best Male Video
» Justin Bieber, "U Smile," 7/5
» Cee Lo Green, "F--- You," 7/4
» Eminem (featuring Rihanna), "Love the Way You Lie," 7/2
» Kanye West (featuring Rihanna and Kid Cudi), "All of the Lights," 9/2
» Bruno Mars, "Grenade," 12/1
Bodog's Take: "Justin Bieber makes millions of girls smile, which in turn makes his record company smile," Bodog Sportsbook manager Richard Gardner says. "Over at Bodog's online sportsbook, we're inclined to think that Bieber Fever is still running high."
Best Female Video
» Lady Gaga, "Born This Way," 6/5
» Katy Perry, "Firework," 11/4
» Adele, "Rolling in the Deep," 11/4
» Nicki Minaj, "Super Bass," 9/2
» Beyoncé, "Run the World (Girls)," 8/1
Bodog's Take: "Lady Gaga has just been awarded the #1 spot on Forbes' Celebrity 100, #1 Social and #1 Web lists; she also owns the #2 position in Press, #3 in TV/Radio, #8 in Money and is sitting pretty at #11 on their 'World's Most Powerful Women' list," Gardner says. "This woman has to be a clear favorite to win Best Female Video."
Best Rock Video
» Mumford & Sons, "The Cave," 7/4
» Foster the People, "Pumped Up Kicks," 9/4
» Foo Fighters, "Walk," 3/1
» The Black Keys, "Howlin' for You," 4/1
» Cage the Elephant, "Shake Me Down," 6/1
Bodog's Take: "If Noel Gallagher loves [Mumford & Sons], then that's saying something, right?" Gardner says. "And what about Marcus Mumford and Carey Mulligan's recent engagement? That's huge. The awards they've picked up along the way for 'The Cave' are added insurance for our bettors."
Best Pop Video
» Katy Perry, "Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.)," 6/5
» Adele, "Rolling in the Deep," 7/5
» Pitbull (featuring Ne-Yo, Nayer and Afrojack), "Give Me Everything," 5/1
» Bruno Mars, "Grenade," 7/1
» Britney Spears, "Till the World Ends," 14/1
Bodog's Take: " 'Last Friday Night' made Billboard history last week as it made Katy Perry the first woman to hit five #1 spots with one album," Gardner explains. "Clearly, Perry is the reigning pop princess."
Best Hip-Hop Video
» Kanye West (featuring Rihanna and Kid Cudi), "All of the Lights," 2/1
» Nicki Minaj, "Super Bass," 9/4
» Lil Wayne (featuring Cory Gunz), "6 Foot 7 Foot," 5/2
» Chris Brown (featuring Lil Wayne and Busta Rhymes), "Look at me Now," 3/1
» Lupe Fiasco, "The Show Goes On," 12/1
Bodog's Take: "Kanye may have fallen onstage while performing this song in Norway, but he'll get the last laugh when he picks up the award for 'Best Hip-Hop Video' at this year's MTV Video Music Awards," Gardner says. "At least that's how we think this one will go down with bettors."
Best New Artist
» Wiz Khalifa, "Black and Yellow," 7/5
» Kreayshawn, "Gucci Gucci," 7/4
» Tyler, the Creator, "Yonkers," 3/1
» Foster the People, "Pumped Up Kicks," 6/1
» Big Sean (featuring Chris Brown), "My Last," 12/1
Bodog's Take: "Khalifa's $11 million haul over the past year earned him the #11 spot on Forbes' annual Hip-Hop Cash Kings list," Gardner pointed out. "But it was when 'Black and Yellow' became the Pittsburgh Steelers' anthem during their Super Bowl run ... that's what our bettors will be counting on."
Video of the Year
» Katy Perry, "Firework," 6/5
» Adele, "Rolling in the Deep," 7/4
» Beastie Boys, "Make Some Noise," 4/1
» Bruno Mars, "Grenade," 9/2
» Tyler, the Creator, "Yonkers," 16/1
Bodog's Take: "This one comes down to basic math. Katy Perry has been nominated for 10 [awards]," Gardner explained. "While there's no such thing as a sure thing, she's cutting it pretty darn close with this one."
The 28th annual MTV Video Music Awards will air live Sunday, August 28, from the Nokia Theatre in Los Angeles at 9 p.m. ET/PT, following the Selena Gomez-hosted pre-show at 8. See the list of nominees, revisit last year's highlights and vote for Best New Artist by visiting VMA.MTV.com.
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